CAP $$ - WHAT EFFECT? - DRAFT & FREE AGENCY

So... I might as well be the one who broaches the subject. Let's talk about the Salary Cap (for THIS year). As we all know the "CAP" can (and DOES) fluctuate every year. It usually goes up, but it can go down as well. For perspective, the CAP last year (2023) was $224.8 Million. The "projected" cap number for this year has been hovering around $243 M since all of the speculating began. This $243M number is what all of the "cap space" arguments have been based on.

The NFL has released the total team Salary Cap number for 2024, so no more speculating (guessing) is necessary. In an announcement Friday, the NFL has decreed the 2024 Salary Cap to be a surprising $255.4 Million. That represents a massive $30M jump over last year....FAR more than was expected.

So, NOW, with an additional $12M in cap space more than was projected..... How does this affect or change what the Panthers will do.?? Specifically, does this change the "Burns Saga"..?? Should it..??  Because there is now more money available, does that mean Burns is automatically "worth" more.?? Or, is Burns value still based on where he ranks league wide.??

Tell us what you think.....

Good questions.  This team has a lot of needs. Top tier free agents will now be more expensive because everyone now has more cash.

I still don't think we should overpay Burns.  I still say tag and trade.

If we overpay Burns, a player who admits he played with less effort last year because he did not want to get hurt, it would be a contradiction to what Dan Morgan said in his intro press conference about the type of player he wants.  I would be more in favor of over paying Luvu if we have to overpay for anyone.  That man did not quit last year.

I t hink Dan meant what he said..in fact, I wonder if he was sending a message to Burns. Burns turned down $27 million last year, which I think  was too much.

Good points LP... and well-stated.

To expand on what you said about "Over-paying Burns...", let me add this. If we were to "Over-pay" him, we would be doing a major dis-service to the Panthers team, to the quality players ranked above him, and to the overall salary positions of the entire league.  There is no doubt that salaries are going up. But to arbitrarily pay someone WAY above their demonstrated ability and above their same-position competitors with higher skill levels and stat lines --- makes NO sense.

Here is a breakdown of "Edge" guys under contract by AAV (Average Annual Value) according to SPOTRAC.  This would include both some "Ends" and "OLBs” depending on how the team lists them and whether they play in a 3-4 or a 4-3 base defense.

NICK BOSA  ----------  $34M
TJ WATT  -------------  $28M
JOEY BOSA  ----------  $27M
MILES GARRETT  ----  $25M
MONTEZ SWEAT  ----  $24.5M
RASHAAN GARY  -----  $24M
MAX CROSBY  --------  $23.5M
KHALIL MACK  -------  $23.5
BRADLEY CHUBB ----  $22M

and below these guys we have players like...

VON MILLER  ---------  $20M
HAROLD LANDRY ----  $17.5M
ARIK ARMSTEAD  ----  $17M

Now, without spending too much time and looking up their individual stat lines --- Where would you place Brian Burns.??  I don't care WHAT he's asking for.... There is NO WAY that Burns gets paid in the Top 5.  Objectively speaking, I would place him around the mid-bottom of the Top 10.  But even that would place him ahead of Khalil Mack and Bradley Chubb (AND Von Miller and Arik Armstead..).

IMHO -- Burns should be paid around $22-23M after last years fiasco. Give him a 5-year deal with provisional performance bonuses that would take it up considerably IF he performs. Example: Double digit sacks pays extra. 15 sacks pays MORE EXTRA. #s of TFLs means more money. #s of QB pressures and hits means more money. #s of Pass deflections = more. Passes defensed = more. Snaps played = more.

There are lots of ways to make it fair. But the underlying criteria must be performance. NOT "expected" or "projected" numbers. The criteria must be identifiable and measurable.

NOW -- Burns will never agree to this. He's too greedy and too much of an egoist. He doesn't want to perform. He just wants guaranteed greenbacks. Money - MONEY - MONEY.

SO .... Just like LP said and I've said many times --- "Tag him and trade him".

I think your estimate of what he is worth is probably accurate.  But then there is also  this........when do you know you can trust him? 

I think your estimate of what he is worth is probably accurate.  But then there is also  this........when do you know you can trust him? 

Truthfully, you don’t know.. That’s the big reason you should base everything over and above a base number on identifiable and measurable outcomes (performance).

If he performs …. he gets paid. If he blows it off, quits trying, and/or doesn’t produce, well guess what…. No dessert for Burnsie….

There is another aspect to this discussion. The additional Cap monies make roster decisions more of a "thing". In addition to Burns, we have multiple FAs getting ready to "test the market". Also, there are multiple FAs from other teams who will be available as well as others who have been released.

So, how does this infusion of Cap money affect the Panthers' decisions about the roster in general, going forward..?? Will the Panthers be more active in FA..?? Will we be "buying" or "selling"..?? Can we look forward to some new veteran 'blood' in the locker room.??  Who do you want to keep of our FAs  (forgetting Burns for the moment..).  There are certainly a few who could be helpful. And what about the Draft.?? Will we recover a pick or three for this year..?? What about future picks..??  We have until March 13th, when current contracts expire and the new league year begins to make deals with our own players. 

What do you think.???

Just a reminder:

Here's a look at the complete list of players whose contracts expire after the season:

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS (21)

T David Sharpe
G Gabe Jackson
G Justin McCray
WR DJ Chark
WR Laviska Shenault
DE Deshawn Williams
DE Henry Anderson
DE Chris Wormley
OLB Brian Burns✔** (tag and trade)
OLB Marquis Haynes✔
OLB Yetur Gross-Matos✔
LB Frankie Luvu✔✔✔✔✔✔✔✔✔✔✔✔
LB Kamu Grugier-Hill✔
LB Deion Jones
LB Tae Davis
CB C.J. Henderson
CB Troy Hill
CB Shaquill Griffin
S Jeremy Chinn??
S Sam Franklin✔
LS JJ Jansen✔+++++++

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS (3)
TE Giovanni Ricci
TE Stephen Sullivan (Re-signed Jan. 8)
WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette✔

EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS FREE AGENTS (3)
RB Raheem Blackshear
DE LaBryan Ray (Re-signed Jan. 8)
DT Nick Thurman (Re-signed Jan. 8)

1 check...if reasonable.  Chinn...gee..I wish Evero would figure out a way to use him.

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I think the Panthers need to be smart in FA.  Tepper likes to go after the shinny toy.  Dan needs to focus instead on building this this team the right way.  Given the recent team history/record...we are out of the top tier FA market.  Add some solid pieces on offense....draft well...then coach well.  Look like a real  NFL team in 2024 and things are much different this time next year.