BAKER MAYFIELD---STATS (THE REALITY BEHIND THE PRETTY VIDEOS..)

Since we have been talking about Mayfield almost continuously for the past two months.... And since it now appears that the Panthers have indeed struck a deal for the embattled former #1 draft pick.... And since the pretty videos have been much in view telling us, nay showing us, how lucky we are to have accomplished this feat of slight-of-hand trade trickery, complete with the constant re-telling of all the magnificent football plays pulled off by this Baron of Football Gamesmanship.... AND since the current fans who inhabit this board are a discerning bunch and DESERVE to know the truth.... I hereby offer for your perusal, a small packet of truth with which to temper your growing excitement.

If this doesn't dampen your enthusiasm, nothing will.

Here, I ask you to PLEASE NOTE.... I am not responsible for this mess. I am merely re-telling the story of Baker Mayfield with facts and figures instead of the video assault, eliminating the 'hype' that has infiltrated this story over the past couple of months.

It's going to take me a little time to bring this all together. But it's coming......

Alright, now. I've got my noose ready. Where are you?

Okay.... We'll start this off slow and easy.

Baker Mayfield was drafted by the Browns in 2018-- #1 overall. He went to Oklahoma where he won the Heisman Trophy in his Senior year -- 2017. That year he played 14 games, completed 285 of 404 passes for a 70.5 %, 4627 yds & 11.5 Y/A, 43 TD & 6 INT.,  a Passing Efficiency rating of 198.9.......... And has NEVER come even close to those numbers since then.

***2018***
After being drafted by the Browns, he began his NFL career in 2018.
In 2018 Mayfield played in 14 of 16 games for the Browns. He started 13 of those games.

** Won/Loss record = 7-7. He beat the JETS, the RAVENS, the FALCONS, the BENGALS (twice..), the PANTHERS, and the BRONCOS.
    He lost to the RAIDERS, the CHARGERS, the BUCS, the STEELERS, the CHIEFS, the TEXANS, and the RAVENS.

** Passing Stats = 310-C of 486-A for 63.8% and 3725 Yds. 27 TDs vs. 14 INTs, 25 Sacks, and a QBR of 51.2.

** Mayfield also picked up 131 Rushing Yds. in 39 Att.

Overall, this is an OK rookie year. Certainly, not what a team was looking for out of a #1 Overall pick, but not terrible either. Completion percentage was just OK and hopefully improves. TDs/ INTs ratio needs to improve. Sacks need to go down. And of course the QBR needs to go up.

2019 IS NEXT...   

Okay.... So we're moving forward with this effort. If you have stayed observant here on the forum, you probably noticed a recent topic named "BAKER MAYFIELD HIGHLIGHTS". Also in the topic "LOOKS LIKE WE GOT BAKER" ... There were several posts that included links to videos on Panthers dot com, as well as YouTube videos, all of which were extolling the virtues of Mayfield. All of this to the detriment of Sam Darnold of course, and obviously containing a huge dose of "I told you so..." for those fans who were/are Mayfield FanBoys. How much of what the videos showed was applicable to the current situation was never discussed. So..... in my own somewhat stupid thought process, I decided to "take a walk on the wild side" and attempt to draw correlations to the Panthers QB situation, and expose the video hype to the stone-cold light of day. I thought it would be fun....... Instead, it turned out to be interesting.

I started this journey with a brief synopsis of Mayfield's college Heisman Trophy year and his "freshman" rookie campaign with the Browns. You can find that 'bit' up there ^^^ labeled and tabbed as the year 2018.  Now, here we go with his second NFL year.... 2019.

***2019***

After a so-so rookie campaign in 2018, Baker Mayfield was all set for a little 'breakout' in his second season. And he got it (kinda-sorta..). It was here that Mayfield continued his run of games as the #1 QB of the Browns. After playing in 14 games his rookie year (and starting 13 of them...), he started all 16 games in 2019.

** Won/Loss Record = 6-10.  He beat the JETS, the RAVENS, the BILLS, the STEELERS, the DOLPHINS, and the BENGALS.
     He lost to the TITANS, the RAIDERS, the 49ers, the SEAHAWKS, the PATRIOTS, the BRONCOS, the STEELERS, the CARDINALS, the RAVENS, and the BENGALS.

** Passing Stats = 317-C of 534-A for 59.4% and 3827 Yds. 22 TDs vs. 21 INTs. 40 SACKS and a QBR of 54.4.

** In 2019 Mayfield picked up 141 Rushing Yds in 28 Att. 

So, Baker Mayfield advanced his playing time, starting all 16 games for the Browns. He also threw for an additional 102 yards and gained an additional 10 yards rushing. This amounts to exactly 112 additional yards of offense in two additional games.  Still, you can't really call it BAD.... just maybe a little 'badder' than desired.??  So, even though this was a "breakout" year (kinda-sorta..??)   , Mayfield's W-L% went down, INTs went up, Sacks went WAY up, and everything else stayed about the same.  All this with two additional games played.


2020 is coming soon..!!

Alright, now.  I've got my noose ready.  Where are you?

I'm right here.  So you have a moose.  What does a palmated antlered quadruped have to do with ............ Ohh, I see what you did there. So tell me....When is a noose not a noose.??   Ans: When the first letter of the species has an extra hump.!!  

So, you planning a lynching.??

And then there was 2020....

If I were to guess, I would bet that this would be the year upon which all of the hyperbole has been built. Here and Now is what all of the prognosticators are pointing to with unmuted enthusiasm. Is it 'all that".??   Hmmm.... Let's dig into the reality, look at the situation and the numbers, evaluate the play.  Then.....YOU be the judge.

IF at any point in Mayfield's first four years there was a light 'in the tunnel', OR "at the end..."  (to keep the saying and the thought process reasonably coherent..), then 2020 would be it. On the surface it would appear that everything has 'come together' for Baker Mayfield. Let's take a look at the facts.

***2020***

** Won/Loss Record = 11-5. He beat the BENGALS (twice..), the COMMANDERS, the COWBOYS, the COLTS, the TEXANS, the EAGLES, the JAGUARS,  the TITANS, the GIANTS, and the STEELERS.
He lost to the RAVENS (twice..), the STEELERS, the RAIDERS, and the JETS.

** Passing Stats = 305-C of 486-A for 62.8% and 3563 Yds. 26 TDs vs. 8 INTs. 26 SACKS and a QBR of 65.5.

** In 2020 Mayfield picked up 165 Rushing Yds. in 54 Atts.

THEN... The Browns made it into the Playoffs.

** Record = 1-1. He beat the STEELERS (48-37..), then lost to the CHIEFS (22-17..).

** Passing = 44-C of 71-A for 62% and 467 Yds. 4 TDs vs. 1 INT. 1 SACK and a QBR of 71.1.

** In two Playoff games Mayfield ran 8 times for 14 Yds.

I think we can all agree that 2020 was a decent year, at least on the surface. Once again he played all 16 games and won 11 of them. But did his playing account for the better year, or was there a marked improvement elsewhere on the team.? Well..... He passed for the fewest yards of his career, the TDs and the Completion percentage were about the same, and he was sacked about the same amount (not counting the 40 sack year..). His Rushing average was down year over year as well (ESPECIALLY in the Playoff games..). HOWEVER... He raised his QBR significantly, and he cut down on the INT turnovers, so that is a definite improvement.

The Browns are in the AFC North with the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Bengals. In 2020 it was their turn to take on the NFC East, including the Giants. the Cowboys, the Eagles, and the Commanders (now the WFT..). In addition they played all of the AFC South , including the Texans, the Colts, the Titans, and the Jaguars. The remaining two games were against the Jets and the Raiders.
NOW...going back to 2019 when Mayfield had his 6-10 year, the Browns were matched up against all of the teams from the AFC East, including the Patriots, the Bills, the Jets, and the Dolphins. In addition they played the teams from the NFC West, including the Rams, the 49ers, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals. The remaining two games were against the Broncos and the Titans.

In 2019, the Browns split with their division opponents, winning one game from each of the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens. They won three of the four to the AFC East, losing only to the Patriots. That is all they won, losing all of the NFC West games, as well as the two games to the Broncos and the Titans.
In 2020, the Browns won three division games once again, although in a different fashion. They split with the Steelers, lost two to the Ravens, and won two from the Bengals. They won all four from the NFC East, as well as all four from the AFC South. They lost the remaining two to the Jets and the Raiders.

So from the worst Baker Mayfield season, to the best Mayfield season, was a study in the dichotomy of NFL football teams as well as annual NFL team scheduling. Starting last year in 2021 and moving forward, it will be even more convoluted because of the 17 game schedule and the proliferation of the International sites where one teams loses the 'home field advantage'.

What did this prove.?? Not a lot. The Browns played better football in 2020, with a much improved W-L record. They looked sharp against the AFC South and the NFC East, but still struggled against their division opponents. And they lost to the Jets and the Raiders as well. Baker Mayfield looked somewhat improved, but not enough to make the difference in the W-L record. That was partly Mayfield's improved play, and partly other factors like improved Defense, better Turnover performance, and the luck of the scheduling draw (either GOOD or BAD..??).  Baker Mayfield's data is pretty much a 'flat line' year over year. His overall yardage production was slightly DOWN in 2020, but the teams success was much improved. I attribute this (mostly..) to increased awareness by Mayfield and a much improved Turnover Ratio, especially with the INTs.

OKAY...2021 is coming next.

Alright, now.  I've got my noose ready.  Where are you?

I'm right here.  So you have a moose.  What does a palmated antlered quadruped have to do with ............ Ohh, I see what you did there. So tell me....When is a noose not a noose.??   Ans: When the first letter of the species has an extra hump.!!  

So, you planning a lynching.??

I am not responsible for this mess.  I'm just showing you the type of posts that Hobbit makes at 4:07am.    

(Just messin', Hobbit.  And the noose reference was that I'm ready to hang myself if your report is bad enough.  Of course, your reply does bring out the important trivia that, had I been Muhsin, that would be a Moose noose.)

As always, I truly appreciate all the work you do putting stats, etc. together!

I think you and I have pretty much been on the same page about Mayfield.  I don't see him coming in and solving all our QB woes.  (Although he has been compared to Cajun Jake.  I won't cry if I have to adjust my view like I did after halftime in Game 1 of 2003.)

In any event, I took your stats and did a quick comparison of Mayfield to what we've had here in those same years:

2018
Baker Mayfield played 14 games: 7-7. 63.8%. 3725 YDS. 27 TD. 14 INT. QBR 51.2
Cam Newton also played 14: 6-8. 67.9% 3395 YDS. 24 TD. 13 INT. QBR 53.2

2019
Baker Mayfield played all 16 games: 6-10. 59.4%. 3827 YDS. 22 TD. 21 INT. QBR 54.4
Allen (13)/Cam (2)/Grier (2): 5-11. 60.3% 4134 YDS. 17 TD. 21 INT. QBR: KA 38.3/CN 22.5/WG 10.3

2020
Baker Mayfield played 16 games: 11-5. 62.8%. 3563 YDS. 26 TD. 8 INT. QBR 65.5
Teddy B (15)/PJ Walker (1): 5-11. 67.8% 4129 YDS. 16 TD. 16 INT. QBR: TB 56.8/PJ 9.6

2021
Baker Mayfield played 14 games: 6-8. 60.5%. 3010 YDS. 17 TD. 13 INT. QBR 35.1
Darnold played 12 games: 4-8. 59.9% 2527 YDS. 9 TD. 13 INT. QBR 33.2


Totals:
Mayfield: 30-30. 92 TD. 56 INT.
Panthers: 20-38. 66 TD. 63 INT.

The good news, Mayfield is the best qb we will have on the field in quite a long period of time! The bad news, he is still a 3rd tier level qb. The better news is that we will be in a position financially to go after an upper tier qb, the bad news is, there will not be a free agent available to match!

On a side note: is it just me or do you feel that is a sentiment that players are not overly excited to be be playing for Rhule… not displeased, just not excited. Rarely if ever in fact do I recall anyone, any position, saying how much they enjoy playing here. Or for him specifically.

That first, n a worry about Baker n the locker room worries me about this year. Rhules gotta put on a near masterclass of coaching, or we are in big trouble.

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Thanks for all the info hobbit

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N coffee